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THE WATER COOLER
The Big Three
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#1: Oil Prices Dip as Iran Peace Talks Move Forward
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U.S. oil prices slipped Tuesday after President Trump said peace negotiations with Iran are going well, raising hopes that more oil could flow into the global market soon. When more oil is available worldwide, prices at the pump tend to follow it down.
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The Raw Truth: Every few cents that gas drops is real money back in your pocket — money that was already spoken for by your grocery bill, your electric bill, and everything else squeezing you right now. If these talks hold and prices keep sliding, that is a small but genuine exhale for families running on fumes. Do not plan around it yet, but watch it — because cheaper gas is one of the fastest ways the average household gets a little breathing room. |
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#2: More People Working Two Jobs Just to Survive
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A new report highlights a sharp rise in workers taking on second and even third jobs as the cost of living keeps climbing and full-time work alone no longer covers the basics. This is not a hustle-culture choice for most people — it is a survival move.
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The Raw Truth: If you are already doing this, you are not alone and you are not failing — the math is just broken right now for a lot of households. But here is the hard truth: working more hours without a plan just means you are exhausted and still broke five years from now. The goal is to use that extra income as a weapon — attack the smallest debt first, build a small emergency fund, and stop the bleeding before the second job becomes permanent. |
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#3: Entry-Level Jobs Are Disappearing Fast
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The boss of major retail chain Next warned that entry-level job openings are getting twice as many applicants as they did just two years ago, signaling that the job market for workers without specialized skills is getting brutally competitive. Fewer open doors at the bottom means less leverage for people trying to get a foot in or move up.
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The Raw Truth: If you or someone in your house is job hunting right now, this is the reality on the ground — and pretending otherwise does not help you. The competition is real, which means your resume, your reliability, and your willingness to show up differently than the next hundred applicants actually matters more than ever. This is also a loud reminder that building even one marketable skill — a certification, a trade, anything concrete — is not optional anymore if you want to stop competing in a race with a hundred other people for the same low-paying door. |
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"Diversification of investments is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they are doing."
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TRACKING YOUR S&P 500 INDEX FUND
The Ownership 10
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Your 401k S&P 500 index fund — whether you know it as VOO, FXAIX, or the Vanguard Institutional 500 Index Trust — owns all 500 of these companies. When they win, you win.
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The Heavy Hitters — Working Hard for You Today:
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Ford Motor Company (F) 🟢 Up 9.22% — Ford reported it made a lot more money this quarter than most people expected, and that got folks excited. They build the F-150 in your driveway and the Mustang your neighbor wishes he had. |
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Merck & Company (MRK) 🟢 Up 5.64% — Good news about one of their medicines had people feeling a lot better about the company today. They make prescription drugs you have probably picked up at the pharmacy, including some cancer and diabetes treatments. |
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 🟢 Up 2.24% — People are still really fired up about their weight-loss and diabetes drugs, and that excitement kept the stock climbing. They are the company behind Mounjaro and Zepbound, the shots your coworkers keep talking about. |
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Salesforce (CRM) 🟢 Up 2.13% — Drifting along with the broader market today with a little extra momentum behind it. They make the software that helps salespeople at big companies keep track of all their customers and deals. |
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General Motors Company (GM) 🟢 Up 2.05% — Riding the same wave as Ford today after the auto industry got some good news about profits. They make Chevy, GMC, Buick, and Cadillac — probably a few of those are parked on your street right now. |
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The Benchwarmers — Having a Tough Day (But Still on Your Team):
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Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) 🔴 Down 2.11% — Just took a little breather after a really strong run-up over the past few months. They run those giant warehouse stores where you buy a 48-pack of paper towels and somehow spend three hundred dollars. |
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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) 🔴 Down 1.90% — Pulled back a bit after a massive run that had it sitting near all-time highs. They make the computer chips that power artificial intelligence — basically the engine under the hood of the AI boom everyone keeps talking about. |
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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) 🔴 Down 1.21% — Drifting along with the broader market today with a little extra pressure from ongoing concerns about competition. They run Google search, YouTube, and Gmail — tools you probably used before breakfast this morning. |
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Halliburton Company (HAL) 🔴 Down 1.17% — Slipped a bit today as oil prices stayed soft and made investors less excited about the energy business. They are one of the big companies that goes out and helps drill for the oil and gas that ends up in your gas tank. |
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Walmart Inc. (WMT) 🔴 Down 0.88% — Drifting along with the broader market today after a long stretch of strong performance. They run Walmart stores and the Walmart app — basically the place where a huge chunk of America buys groceries every single week. |
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Takeaway: Five companies are winning today. Five are hurting. Your index fund holds all 500. You never have to pick the right one. You just have to stay in. That is the whole game.
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YOUR MONEY
The Household Dashboard
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| Item |
Today |
Status |
| National Gas Avg (AAA) |
$4.49/gal |
🟢 2¢ down today |
| DC Gas Avg (AAA) |
$4.64/gal |
🟢 2¢ down today |
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage |
6.51% |
🟢 Trending |
| S&P 500 YTD Return |
see Scoreboard |
🟢 Still growing |
| Credit Card APR Avg |
22.30% |
🔴 Record highs |
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Gas is down 2 cents today nationally — $4.49 a gallon right now, so fill up today and log those work miles while the price is in your favor. |
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Credit card APR is sitting at a record-high 22.30% — every dollar you are carrying on that card is bleeding you dry, so throw any extra cash at that balance today before it eats another month of your life. |
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YOUR RETIREMENT
The Scoreboard: Daily vs. The Long Game
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| Investment |
Today |
5-Yr Return |
10-Yr Return |
| S&P 500 — VOO / FXAIX / Vanguard 500 |
🟢 +0.40% |
🟢 +87.1% |
🟢 +321.7% |
| Nasdaq — QQQ |
🟢 +0.42% |
🟢 +108.6% |
🟢 +616.2% |
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The TV wants you to panic about the red dot on the left. The green numbers on the right are your real story. Stay in.
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The Mailbag
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"Hey Rock. The market keeps hitting all-time highs right now. I have $50,000 sitting in cash from a property sale. I am terrified to dump it into VOO because I feel like a crash is coming. Should I wait for a pullback to buy in?" — Mike, Baltimore, MD
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Here is the raw truth on market timing.
Waiting for a crash is exactly how average investors stay broke.
The market is supposed to hit all-time highs. That is how the math works. If it never hit new highs we would all be out of money. The S&P 500 spends the majority of its life sitting at or near a record high.
If you sit in cash waiting for a 10% drop, you might miss a 25% run up before it ever happens. You still lose. Plus your $50,000 is getting eaten alive by inflation every single day it sits on the sidelines.
You cannot time the market. Nobody can. Not even the guys in expensive suits on Wall Street.
If you are too nervous to drop the whole fifty grand in on a Tuesday, then break it up. Put $5,000 a month into VOO for the next ten months. It is called dollar cost averaging. It takes the emotion completely out of the math.
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But you have to get the money in the game. You are buying the 500 most profitable companies in America. Put the money to work and go live your life.
Keep building. 💪🇺🇸
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Send questions to [email protected]
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THE MILLIONAIRE MANUAL
When to Refinance — How to Know If That Lower Rate Is Actually Saving You Money or Just Resetting the Clock
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The mail comes, or the ad pops up, and it says you could lower your monthly payment by $200 — and honestly, after the month you just had, that sounds like oxygen. But refinancing is one of those moves that can genuinely help you or quietly cost you thousands, and the difference comes down to one question nobody asks before they sign.
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When you refinance, you are not just grabbing a lower rate — you are often restarting a brand-new loan clock. Say you are 6 years into a 30-year mortgage and you refi into another 30-year loan. You just added 6 years back onto your debt. Even at a lower rate, you could pay $40,000 to $60,000 more in total interest over the life of that loan. The closing costs alone — usually 2 to 5 percent of the loan balance — can eat up 18 to 24 months of your shiny new savings before you break even.
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The Move: Tonight, pull up a free refinance calculator — just Google 'refinance break-even calculator' and use the one from Bankrate or NerdWallet, both are free and take about 4 minutes. Plug in your current rate, the new rate you were offered, your remaining loan balance, and the estimated closing costs. The calculator will spit out your break-even month — that is the month where you have finally saved enough to cover what the refi cost you upfront. If you are planning to stay in the home past that break-even point, the refi probably makes sense. If you are not sure how long you are staying, or if break-even is more than 3 to 4 years away, pump the brakes. If the math does check out, call at least 3 lenders — your current bank, a credit union, and one online lender like Better.com — and get Loan Estimates from all three so you can compare the actual numbers side by side, not just the rate. Ask each one to show you a 15-year option too, because if you can afford the slightly higher payment, a 15-year refi at a lower rate is a freight train toward freedom. The one thing you do in the next 24 hours: open that Bankrate calculator right now and just run your current numbers — do not commit to anything, just know your break-even. That number will tell you everything.
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The Raw Truth: a lower payment is not always a better deal — know your break-even before you sign a single thing.
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BACKPAGE
The Wacky Corner
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Back in 2011, a small-town pawn shop owner named Don Counts in Stillwater, Oklahoma noticed something strange: college kids kept coming in trying to hock their smartphones to buy limited-edition Air Jordans the same week they dropped. Don flipped the script. He started buying those same shoes himself, reselling them out of a back corner of the shop, and within 18 months he had cleared more profit on sneakers than on jewelry, guns, and electronics combined. Local TV picked it up, the story got traction on early Facebook, and suddenly everyone in Payne County thought they had found the new gold rush. What they missed was the part where Don quietly used every dollar of sneaker profit to pay off his shop building — he owned the dirt before he ever bragged about the shoes.
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Lesson: Lesson: Hype pays the bills; ownership builds the life.
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🇺🇸 To the special-needs daycare worker who memorizes every child's triggers, celebrates every tiny breakthrough, and clocks out exhausted knowing the paycheck will never match what you actually gave today — we see you.
Love y'all. Attack that debt. Keep those contributions running. The plan does not change.
See you on the road. — Rock (Craig)
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