The Raw Truth — Wednesday, July 08, 2026
 
 

YOUR RETIREMENT The Scoreboard: Daily vs. The Long Game

Investment Today 5-Yr Return 10-Yr Return
S&P 500 — VOO / FXAIX / Vanguard 500 🔴 -0.51% 🟢 +77.7% 🟢 +306.2%
Nasdaq — QQQ 🔴 -1.85% 🟢 +92.4% 🟢 +552.9%

The TV wants you to panic about the red dot on the left. The green numbers on the right are your real story. Stay in.

 
 
 
 

WORDS TO STEER BY The Daily Quote

"The stock market is a highly efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient."

— Nick Murray

 
 
 
 

The Mailbag

"Hey Craig! My 20-year-old son just landed a decent job and needs a reliable car to get back and forth to work. He found a good used Honda, but because he has zero credit history, the dealership is telling him he needs a co-signer to get approved for the loan. He asked me to do it so he can build his credit. I want to help him get a good start in life. Is this a safe move since it is my own kid?" — Sarah, Texas

Sarah, absolutely not. Do not do this.
I know you love your son and you want to help him get a good start, but co-signing a loan is one of the fastest ways to destroy both your financial fortress and your relationship with your child.
Here is the absolute raw truth about what co-signing actually means:
1. The Bank is Giving You a Warning: The bank uses billion-dollar algorithms to measure risk. When they ask for a co-signer, they are explicitly telling you they do not believe your son is going to pay them back. They want your signature so they can legally come after your money when he defaults.
2. It is 100% Your Debt: You are not just being a character reference. The second you sign that paperwork, that debt goes entirely on your credit report. It impacts your debt-to-income ratio. If he misses a single payment or is late by a few days, your credit score takes the hit.
3. It Ruins Relationships: Thanksgiving dinner gets incredibly awkward when you have to look across the table and ask your kid if he made his car payment so your credit does not get wrecked. You change the dynamic from parent and child to master and servant.
You do not teach a 20-year-old financial responsibility by helping them borrow money they cannot afford. You teach them by showing them how to save and pay cash.
Here is the execution plan for your son. He needs to save up cash and buy a basic, ugly beater car that runs perfectly fine and gets him from point A to point B. He can upgrade later when he has the cash in hand.
If you are on the later stages of our 9-step roadmap, are completely debt-free, have plenty of margin, and you just want to bless him, then you can write him a check and buy the car for him outright as a gift.

But you never ever co-sign a loan for anyone.

Send questions to [email protected]

 
 
 
 

YOUR MONEY The Household Dashboard

Item Today Status
National Gas Avg (AAA) $3.80/gal 🔴 1¢ up today
DC Gas Avg (AAA) $4.07/gal 🔴 1¢ up today
30-Year Fixed Mortgage 6.43% 🟢 Trending
S&P 500 YTD Return see Scoreboard 🟢 Still growing
Credit Card APR Avg 22.30% 🔴 Record highs
Gas is rising — national average hit $3.80 and ticked up again today, so fill that tank right now before it climbs any higher this week.
Credit card APR is sitting at a record-high 22.30% — every dollar you leave on that balance is working against you, so throw anything extra at that card today and stop feeding that machine.
 
 
 
 

THE MILLIONAIRE MANUAL The Spreadsheet Illusion — Why Keeping 'Low Interest' Debt to Invest is a Massive Trap

Good morning fam. Today we are taking a sledgehammer to one of the most arrogant and destructive myths floating around the personal finance world. You have probably heard the spreadsheet nerds tell you not to pay off your 4% car loan or your 5% student loan because you can make 10% in the market. They call it leveraging the spread or optimizing your capital. I call it playing with fire. Today we are exposing the absolute raw truth about why keeping debt around just to play the market is a massive trap that keeps normal people stressed and vulnerable.

Here is the brutal reality that the math equations completely ignore. Risk. Spreadsheets assume your life is going to be perfect. They assume you will never lose your job, never get sick, and that the stock market will never take a 20% dive. But life is not lived on a spreadsheet.
When you keep a $30,000 car loan just so you can put that money into the market, you are essentially borrowing money against your vehicle to buy stocks. If you owned a paid off car today, would you drive down to the bank, take out a title loan against it, and dump that cash into an index fund? Absolutely not. That sounds completely insane. But keeping debt around to invest is the exact same thing.
Furthermore, keeping debt destroys your monthly cash flow. When the economy gets rough, that monthly payment is a heavy chain around your neck. The bank does not care what your index fund is doing. They just want their money.

The Move: Your execution strategy is simple and it is the absolute core of our 9-step roadmap. You do not skip steps and you do not play games with the math.
Here is exactly how you execute this piece of the roadmap:
1. Stop the Investing Temporarily: Unless it is a company match, pause the retirement contributions while you are in the debt-clearing phase.
2. Attack the Debt: Redirect every single spare dollar toward your consumer debt. Line it up smallest to largest and strike it down with absolute intensity.
3. Free the Cash Flow: Get your income completely freed up. When you finally start pouring money into your VOO or FXAIX, you want it to be entirely your money working for you, not money you are juggling with the bank.

You cannot out-invest stupid risk. The true peace of mind that comes from owing the bank absolutely nothing will generate more long-term wealth and better sleep than a 3% theoretical spread ever could. Kill the debt. Free your income.

 
 
 
 

RESPECT The Tribute

🇺🇸 To the meat-packing line worker who stands on concrete for ten hours straight, breaking down every cut so a family they'll never meet can put dinner on the table tonight — we see you.

 
 
 
 

THE WATER COOLER The Big Three

#1: Fed Chair May Stop Warning Markets Before Rate Changes

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly considering making policy decisions without the usual advance signals to Wall Street, which could cause sudden swings in interest rates and markets.

The Raw Truth: If the Fed moves rates without warning, your mortgage rate, car loan rate, and credit card APR could jump before you even see it coming. Families already stretched thin on variable-rate debt could feel a real squeeze in their monthly budget overnight. This is exactly why carrying as little debt as possible right now is not optional — it is protection.

#2: Oil Prices Spike as Middle East Tensions Flare Again

Crude oil prices jumped sharply after signals that a U.S.-Iran ceasefire may be falling apart, pushing energy costs higher in a single day.

The Raw Truth: When oil jumps, gas prices at the pump follow within days — sometimes within hours — and that hits every single household whether you drive a truck or a sedan. It also quietly raises the price of groceries, shipping, and anything that gets delivered to a store near you. If your budget is already tight, this is the kind of invisible tax that can blow a hole in a week you thought you had planned out.

#3: Americans Are Failing Basic Money Knowledge Tests

Financial literacy among U.S. adults just hit a 10-year low, with only 5% able to correctly answer basic questions about how money, interest, and savings actually work.

The Raw Truth: This is not about being smart or dumb — nobody taught most of us this stuff, and the system was never designed to make it easy to figure out on your own. But not knowing how compound interest works, or how a Roth IRA is different from a regular savings account, costs real money every single year it goes unlearned. The good news is that a few hours of the right information can change the entire trajectory of your family's financial life — and that is exactly what we are here for.
 
 
 
 

TRACKING YOUR S&P 500 INDEX FUND The Ownership 10

Your 401k S&P 500 index fund — whether you know it as VOO, FXAIX, or the Vanguard Institutional 500 Index Trust — owns all 500 of these companies. When they win, you win.

The Heavy Hitters — Working Hard for You Today:

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) 🟢 Up 3.85% — The U.S. just launched military strikes on Iran and declared the ceasefire over, which is sending oil prices sharply higher and lifting ExxonMobil right along with them. They are one of the biggest oil and gas companies in the world — the people pumping the fuel that goes into your car and heats your home.
Chevron Corporation (CVX) 🟢 Up 3.52% — Same story as their big rival today — the U.S. ending its ceasefire with Iran spooked the oil markets and sent crude prices climbing, which is great news for Chevron's bottom line. They are another massive oil and gas company, and you have probably driven past one of their gas stations a hundred times.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 🟢 Up 3.05% — Johnson and Johnson is drifting along with the broader market today, with no single big company news pushing it in either direction. They make the Band-Aids in your medicine cabinet, the Tylenol on your shelf, and a whole lot of the medical devices doctors use on you at the hospital.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 🟢 Up 2.96% — Eli Lilly hit a record high today as more people on Wall Street are getting fired up about where this company is headed. They are the pharmaceutical giant behind some of the most talked-about weight-loss and diabetes drugs in the country right now — you have almost certainly heard someone mention Mounjaro or Zepbound.
Meta Platforms (META) 🟢 Up 2.55% — Meta is drifting along with the broader market today, with no single company-specific event clearly driving the move. They run Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp — basically the apps your family uses to share photos, argue in the comments, and send you memes.

The Benchwarmers — Having a Tough Day (But Still on Your Team):

Intel Corporation (INTC) 🔴 Down 9.66% — Chip stocks across the board kept sliding today as jittery investors pulled money out of the whole tech space. Intel makes the processors — the brains — inside a huge chunk of the laptops and desktop computers people use every day.
Deere & Company (DE) 🔴 Down 4.98% — Deere is drifting along with the broader market today, with no single company-specific event clearly driving the drop. They build the big green tractors and farm equipment you see out in the fields — basically the tools that help grow a good chunk of the food on your dinner table.
Tesla (TSLA) 🔴 Down 4.02% — Investors are chewing on a lot of uncertainty around Tesla right now, including talk of a possible merger with Elon Musk's rocket company SpaceX and the rollout of a self-driving taxi service in Miami. They make the electric cars you see charging in parking lots and driveways all over the country.
GE Aerospace (GE) 🔴 Down 3.09% — GE Aerospace closed down over three percent yesterday and is carrying that slide into today with no fresh company news turning things around. They build the jet engines strapped to most of the commercial planes you board when you fly somewhere for vacation or work.
Caterpillar (CAT) 🔴 Down 3.07% — Caterpillar just bought a technology company called Skycatch that helps collect precision data at mining sites, and the market seems to be taking a breath after a long run-up in the stock. They make the massive yellow bulldozers, excavators, and construction machines you see tearing up the ground at every big job site.

Takeaway: Five companies are winning today. Five are hurting. Your index fund holds all 500. You never have to pick the right one. You just have to stay in. That is the whole game.

 
 
 
 

BACKPAGE The Wacky Corner

Jay Cooke was the most powerful banker in America — the man who personally financed the Union Army by selling war bonds door to door like a magazine subscription. After the war he turned around and sank every dollar he had into the Northern Pacific Railroad, convinced it would open the entire Northwest and make him richer than God. When the railroad ran out of money faster than the tracks could be laid, Cooke's Philadelphia banking house locked its doors on September 18, 1873, and the shock wave knocked out hundreds of banks across the country inside of a week. The whole mess became known as the Panic of 1873 and triggered a depression that lasted six long years — all because one guy who was great at one thing decided he was also great at everything else.

Lesson: Lesson: One big win does not mean the next big bet is smart — slow ownership beats one giant swing every single time.

 
 

Love y'all. Attack that debt. Keep those contributions running. The plan does not change.

See you on the road. — Rock (Craig)

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