The Raw Truth — Monday, May 04, 2026
 

THE WATER COOLER The Big Three

#1: Is Washington Raiding Your Social Security Money?

A growing number of people are asking whether the federal government borrows from Social Security to pay for other programs — and the honest answer is complicated, because the program's own trustees say it could start running short on funds within the next decade.

The Raw Truth: If you have been paying into Social Security your entire working life, the idea that it might not be there when you need it is not a political talking point — it is a gut punch. This is why we do not build our retirement plan around a government promise. We build it around what we control: our own savings, our own investments, our own plan. That is the whole game.

#2: Oil Prices Jump on Warship Strike Report

A disputed report of an attack on a U.S. Navy ship near a critical oil shipping lane sent oil prices climbing Monday morning, rattling energy markets before the week even got started.

The Raw Truth: You feel this one the second you pull into a gas station. When oil markets get nervous, prices at the pump go up fast — and they come down slow. If your budget is already tight, a 30-cent jump per gallon is not a minor inconvenience, it is groceries. This is exactly why building a small cash cushion matters, because the world does not wait for a convenient time to get expensive.

#3: Spirit Airlines Is Gone — What That Means for You

Spirit Airlines shut down over the weekend after the federal government declined to give them the $500 million bailout they were asking for, ending years of financial struggle for the budget carrier.

The Raw Truth: If you booked a Spirit flight, you need to check your email right now and start looking for alternatives, because those tickets are not going to be honored. Beyond the travel headache, this is a reminder that chasing the cheapest option can sometimes cost you more in the end — in stress, in scrambling, in money lost. Budget smart, but always have a small emergency fund so a surprise like this does not wreck your whole week.
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."
— Benjamin Graham
 
 
 
 

TRACKING YOUR S&P 500 INDEX FUND The Ownership 10

Your 401k S&P 500 index fund — whether you know it as VOO, FXAIX, or the Vanguard Institutional 500 Index Trust — owns all 500 of these companies. When they win, you win.

The Heavy Hitters — Working Hard for You Today:

Intel Corporation (INTC) 🟢 Up 5.44% — Word got out that Intel may be making some big moves to turn the company around, and people jumped back in. They make the computer chips that power laptops, desktops, and a whole lot of the tech you use every day.
Salesforce (CRM) 🟢 Up 4.13% — The company showed it is making more money than people expected, so investors felt good about it today. They sell the software that helps businesses keep track of their customers and sales teams.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) 🟢 Up 3.24% — People bought more iPhones than expected last quarter, and that got investors excited again. They make the iPhone in your pocket, the iPad on your counter, and run the App Store you shop in.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 🟢 Up 3.07% — Demand for their popular weight-loss and diabetes drugs keeps climbing, and investors are betting that ride is not over. They make medicines you have probably seen commercials for, including some of the most talked-about weight-loss shots right now.
Merck & Company (MRK) 🟢 Up 2.73% — Drifting along with the broader market today and catching a little positive wave. They are the drug company behind a lot of the vaccines and prescription medicines your doctor has probably mentioned.

The Benchwarmers — Having a Tough Day (But Still on Your Team):

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) 🔴 Down 2.23% — Investors got nervous about what happens to the company's sales now that a cheaper version of their top drug is hitting the market. They make Botox and a handful of other big-name prescription drugs you may have heard your doctor talk about.
Deere & Company (DE) 🔴 Down 2.14% — Farmers are buying fewer new tractors right now because money is tight in the agriculture world, and that is weighing on the stock. They build the big green John Deere tractors and farm equipment you see out in the fields.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) 🔴 Down 1.96% — Drifting along with the broader market today with no single big story pushing it around. They build military aircraft, weapons systems, and defense technology for the U.S. government and its allies.
Netflix (NFLX) 🔴 Down 1.66% — Just took a breather after a really strong run-up over the past few months. They run the Netflix streaming service that is probably on your TV tonight.
Ford Motor Company (F) 🔴 Down 1.66% — Worries about the cost of building cars and slower truck sales are making investors uneasy right now. They make the Ford F-150 in your neighbor's driveway and pretty much every other Ford vehicle on the road.

Takeaway: Five companies are winning today. Five are hurting. Your index fund holds all 500. You never have to pick the right one. You just have to stay in. That is the whole game.

 
 
 
 

YOUR MONEY The Household Dashboard

Item Today Status
National Gas Avg (AAA) $4.46/gal 🔴 1¢ up today
DC Gas Avg (AAA) $4.50/gal 🔴 2¢ up today
30-Year Fixed Mortgage 6.30% 🟢 Trending
S&P 500 YTD Return see Scoreboard 🟢 Still growing
Credit Card APR Avg 22.30% 🔴 Record highs
Gas is rising — national average hit $4.46 and ticked up another cent today, so fill that tank right now before it climbs any higher this week.
Your credit card is quietly charging you 22.30% interest at record highs, meaning every dollar you leave on that balance is working against you — pick up the phone today and throw any extra cash at that card first.
 
 
 
 

YOUR RETIREMENT The Scoreboard: Daily vs. The Long Game

Investment Today 5-Yr Return 10-Yr Return
S&P 500 — VOO / FXAIX / Vanguard 500 🟢 +0.29% 🟢 +84.3% 🟢 +306.8%
Nasdaq — QQQ 🟢 +0.96% 🟢 +108.0% 🟢 +555.8%

The TV wants you to panic about the red dot on the left. The green numbers on the right are your real story. Stay in.

 
 
 
 

The Mailbag

"Hi Craig! I’m a former Spirit flight attendant who transitioned to SWA three years ago. When I left Spirit, an HR glitch kept me listed in their system as an active employee. The union advised me to leave my Spirit 401(k) at Schwab alone because I was only three years into their five-year vesting schedule, and there was a chance the glitch would let me hit the fully vested mark. Well, the day has come, and it worked—I am now fully vested and just secured about $7,000 in employer match money that I normally would have lost! But with the tragic news of Spirit crumbling, I’m very nervous about leaving that money there. Should I roll this old account over to my SWA retirement plan? Are there advantages to keeping them separate? And when a company goes under, what actually happens to the employees' retirement plans? I know they are supposed to be protected, but should I be expecting a call from Schwab? Lots of questions. Thank you for any guidance." — Anonymous SWA / Former Spirit FA" — Anonymous SWA , USA

First of all, my heart goes out to all of our aviation family dealing with the fallout at Spirit right now. It is a brutal situation, and we are holding all of those team members in our thoughts.
But I have to give you a massive high-five, because navigating that HR glitch to capture $7,000 of free employer match money is one of the wildest and best 401(k) wins I’ve seen in a long time. You played the long game, and you won.
Now, let’s get rid of the anxiety. Here is the flight plan for your money:
Your Money is Safe: When a company goes bankrupt or crumbles, the creditors cannot touch the 401(k) funds. By law, that money is held in a separate trust (in your case, at Charles Schwab). It does not belong to Spirit; it belongs to you. Schwab manages it, so Spirit’s financial collapse does not mean your investments collapse. You do not need to panic-sell or make a move out of fear today.
The Rollover Reality: Should you combine them? Yes, absolutely. Having multiple 401(k)s floating around from past employers is how money gets forgotten and how you end up paying duplicate administrative fees. There is very rarely an advantage to keeping an old 401(k) separate.
Your Next Move: You have two great options. You can roll that Schwab 401(k) directly into your current SWA 401(k), which keeps all your retirement money on one screen and makes it incredibly easy to track. Or, you can roll it into a Traditional or Roth IRA at a low cost brokerage like Schwab, Vanguard or Fidelity, where you have total control over what index funds you invest in. Either way, do a Direct Rollover (where the money goes straight from Schwab to the new account). Do not let them cut a check to you personally, or you’ll get hit with massive taxes and penalties.
Take a deep breath. Your $7,000 win is secure. Get that money rolled over under your own roof, keep your contributions automatic, and stay in your seat. You are doing great.

Call Schwab this week, request a direct rollover to your SWA plan or a Roth IRA, and get that $7,000 out of a dying company's orbit and into an account that works for your future.

Send questions to [email protected]

 
 
 
 

THE MILLIONAIRE MANUAL The Latte Conversation Done Right — What Small Spending Is Actually Costing You (And How to Cut Without Hating Your Life)

Everyone has been told their morning coffee is why they're broke, and honestly, that lecture is tired and condescending. But here's the thing — it's not about the coffee, it's about the pattern.

Small, automatic, daily spending adds up in a way our brains are genuinely wired to ignore. Five dollars a day is $150 a month. That's $1,800 a year. Invested consistently in a simple S&P 500 index fund over 25 years, that single habit flip could grow into somewhere around $150,000 — not because coffee is evil, but because direction matters more than the amount. The real damage isn't one latte. It's ten small invisible habits running on autopilot all at once.

The Move: Tonight, pull up your last two bank statements — just your checking and one credit card, nothing fancy, just screenshot them on your phone. Go line by line and highlight every charge under $20. Don't judge yourself, just count them. Most people find 8 to 15 of these little charges they forgot were even happening — a $7 app subscription, a $12 streaming service nobody watches, a $9 monthly fee on a gym they haven't visited since January. Pick two to cancel right now, before you put the phone down. Not two to think about — two to actually cancel tonight. Log into the app or call the number on the back of your card and kill them. Then take the dollar amount you just freed up — even if it's only $16 — and set up a one-time transfer of that exact amount into a savings account or toward your smallest debt. The point isn't the $16. The point is you just proved to yourself that you are in charge of where your money goes. Do that same audit every single month, first Sunday of the month, 15 minutes, same two statements. That's your entire first step: open those two statements right now and start highlighting.

You don't need to suffer through a joyless life — you just need to stop funding one on accident.

 
 
 
 

BACKPAGE The Wacky Corner

When hotel billionaire Leona Helmsley died in 2007, she left her little white Maltese dog, Trouble, a $12 million trust fund. Her two grandchildren got nothing. Zero. The dog got a security detail and a full-time caretaker. A judge eventually knocked the trust down to $2 million, because even the courts seemed to think that was a little much for a dog. Trouble lived out her days in luxury in a Florida hotel and reportedly cost about $190,000 a year to maintain.

Lesson: Lesson: Money without a real plan just creates chaos — build wealth on purpose and leave a will that actually takes care of your people, not just your pets.

 

🇺🇸 To every hotel housekeeper turning over room after room in silence — you make rest possible for strangers while your own feet ache through a shift the guests never think twice about.

Love y'all. Attack that debt. Keep those contributions running. The plan does not change.

See you on the road. — Rock (Craig)

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